LABOR MARKET OUTLOOK BEFORE THE CORONA PANDEMIC: DECREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT
ALONG WITH DROP IN EMPLOYMENT AND LABOR FORCE
Seyfettin Gürsel, Mehmet Cem Şahin
Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that in the period of February 2020, non-agricultural unemployment rate turned out to be 14.6 percent, with 0.1 percentage point decrease compared to January 2020. In this period, non-agricultural employment decreased by 277 thousand while non-agricultural labor force decreased by 356 thousand. Consequently, the number of unemployed in non-agricultural sector decreased by 79 thousand. As a result of the extraordinary decrease in labor force and employment, seasonally adjusted LFPR and employment rate decreased by 1 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, compared to the period of January 2020. The decrease in LFPR and employment rate has been the biggest in magnitude since the period of January 2005. According to sectorial data, employment losses occurred in all sectors. The most significant decreases in employment occurred in agriculture (by 218 thousand) and services (by 194 thousand). While construction employment decreased by 28 thousand, manufacturing employment decreased by 56 thousand. Seasonally adjusted data shows that the level of labor force and employed people decreased especially among men, which resulted by an increase in non-agricultural male unemployment rate, whereas female non-agricultural unemployment rate decreased. The decrease in female unemployment was the result of the limited decrease in female employment (by 42 thousand), along with relatively significant decrease in female labor force (by 132 thousand)