Growth in the Third Quarter Continues

In light of the fully-released July and partly-released August leading indicators, we expect the Turkish economy to grow by 5.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. According to seasonal and calendar-adjusted data, we forecast quarteron-quarter GDP growth to be 1.1 percent.

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SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE EXPECTATIONS OF STUDENTS

The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 1% (a decrease of 3.7 points compared to last month). 5% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 41-60%. 2% of participants expect inflation to be lower than the current level (an increase of 0.3 points compared to last month).

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Economic Growth and Forecasts: June 2025

In light of the fully-released April and partly-released May leading indicators, we expect the Turkish economy to grow by 4.9 percent in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. According to seasonal and calendar-adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be 1.0 percent.

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Labor Market Outlook: May 2025

BETAM starts a new monthly brief series with information from the Social Security Institute on formal employment. It worths to note that this data allows the monitoring of employment at the provincial level. Türkiye has attested the destruction of 645,941 formal jobs since September 2024 until the end of February 2025. The slump, even though expected due to the low season in the tourism sector, has also probably affected by a negative economic outlook and economic uncertainty. On the one hand, strong employment falls have been observed in Antalya, Istanbul, Muğla, and İzmir. On the other hand, the earthquake-affected region is experimenting a worth noting economic recovery in the form of employment generation. Employment losses in high value-added economic activities, such as those related to consultancy services (not related to tourism), are interpreted as a negative signal for the coming months.

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Economic Growth and Forecasts: April 2025

In light of the fully-released January, February and partly-released March leading indicators, we expect the Turkish economy to grow by 4.0 percent in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. According to seasonal and calendar-adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be 1.3 percent

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SHORT-TERM EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS IN TÜRKİYE: POTENTIAL LIMITATIONS OF THE HOUSEHOLD LABOUR FORCE

Back in 2021, the Turkish Statistical Institute increased the sample size of the Household Labour Force Survey so as to provide independent monthly estimates of the labour market. This research brief analyzes the effects of passing from 3 month moving average stats to monthly ones in terms of the HLFS capacity to assess short-term labour market dynamics. It does so by comparing official monthly figures on formal employment from the Social Security Institute and from the HLFS, both seasonally adjusted and without adjustment. The results show that the shift to monthly stats has worsened an already weak link regarding employment growth between the HLFS and SGK figures. Moreover, it shows that seasonally adjusted figures, especially after the 2021 change, should be avoided to understand the short-term evolution of employment due to the limited information carried.

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Growth in the First Quarter Continues

In light of the fully-released January and partly-released February leading indicators, we expect the Turkish economy to grow by 4.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. According to seasonal and calendar-adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be 1,4 percent.

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Recession in the Third Quarter

In light of the fully-released July, August and partly-released September leading indicators, we expect the Turkish economy to shrink by 1.3 percent in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. According to seasonal and calendar-adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP decline to be 0.6 percent.

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DECLINE IN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, INCREASE IN ALTERNATIVE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

An increase of 78 thousand people in employment and a decrease of 89 thousand people in the number of unemployed reduced the labor force by approximately 10 thousand, and the general unemployment rate decreased by 0.3 points from July to August, reaching 8.5 percent.

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Negative Outlook for Growth Continues

In light of the fully-released July and partly-released August leading indicators, we expect the Turkish economy to shrink by 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. According to seasonal and calendar-adjusted data, we forecast quarter on- quarter GDP decline to be 0.9 percent.

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