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Growth Evaluation: 2018 2ND Quarter

HIGH GROWTH BOOSTED BY PRIVATE CONSUMPTION AND EXPORTS IN THE SECOND QUARTER

Seyfettin Gürsel, Ozan Bakış and Uğurcan Acar

In the second quarter of 2018, according to seasonally and calendar day adjusted data, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 0.9 percent compared to the previous quarter and by 5.2 percent compared to the same quarter of last year. The largest contribution to annual economic growth came from private consumption (3.7 percentage points). Increase in exports attained 4.5 percent. The imports which had increased over 15 percent in the first quarter of 2018, almost stagnated in the second quarter of 2018. Therefore, the contribution to growth of net foreign trade which was minus 4.1 percent in the first quarter, turned positive with 1.3 percent.

Since the GDP growth rates for first two quarters of 2018 were 7.4 and 5.2 percent, growth rates for last two quarters of 2018 had to be around 5 percent in order to achieve the target of 5.5 percent GDP growth projected in the 2018-2020 Medium Term Program (OVP).  Because of the possible recession in the second half of 2018, growth rates will be lower and target will not be achieved according to various economic institutions.

doc. Growth2018Q2

pdf. Growth2018Q2