RECOVERING PROVINCE IDENTIFIERS FROM TURKISH HOUSEHOLD LABOUR FORCE SURVEY MICRODATA

Official microdata from the Turkish Household Labour Force Survey (HLFS) provides geographic indicators at the NUTS-2 level (26 subregions). The way data is aggregated masks Türkiye’s 81 provinces, putting together potentially heterogeneous local economies under the same label, thus, limiting the evaluation of policies’ local impact. This paper presents a strategy to recover provincial-level identifiers in the microdata of the 2004-2013 period. A sequential identification algorithm is implemented based on the car plate provincial number, complemented with a year-specific urban-rural population re-weighting at the province level.

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A tale of two methodologies: The impact of inflation on wages in Türkiye

Controversy has surrounded TÜİK’s consumer price index since 2019, with a group of independent researchers creating their own methodology (ENAG) and entering into a cycle of legal battles and public complaints together with Türkiye’s main opposition party and other stakeholders that is still ongoing in 2026.

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Oil price Pass-Through during the US-Iran Conflict: Evidence from Daily Consumer Prices in Türkiye

This paper examines the time-varying association between domestic fuel prices and consumer prices in an energy-importing emerging economy. Focusing on Türkiye during the US-Iran conflict, it uses daily consumer price data and a state-space model to estimate oil price pass-through (OPPT) in real time. The estimates suggest that OPPT varies over the sample. Before the conflict, the estimated relationship between domestic pump prices and consumer prices was small and statistically insignificant. The June 2025 episode coincides with a brief increase in the coefficient. A larger and statistically significant increase is observed during the 2026 escalation, which also coincides with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and a sharp rise in crude oil prices.

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Household Inflation Expectations: July 2026

The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 47% (a decrease of 2.8 points M-o-M). 41.5% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 21-40%. 32% of participants expect inflation to be lower than the current level (a decrease of 0.3 points M-o-M). By gender: The inflation expectation is 44.6% for men and 51% for women.

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Household Inflation Expectations: May 2026

The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 53,7% (a decrease of 6.3 points M-o-M). 31,2% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 21-40%. 24.3% of participants expect inflation to be lower than the current level (an increase of 6.4 points M-o-M). By gender: The inflation expectation is 52% for men and 56.7% for women.

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Household Inflation Expectations: April 2026

The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 60% (an increase of 10.3 points M-o-M). 32% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 41-60%. 17.9% of participants expect inflation to be lower than the current level (a decrease of 11.8 points M-o-M).

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Quarterly Labor Market Outlook: 2025, Fourth Quarter

According to seasonally adjusted data, employment increased by 136 thousand in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, reaching 32 million 686 thousand. Over the same period, the number of unemployed decreased by 58 thousand, and the labor force increased by 78 thousand. As a consequence, the unemployment rate declined to 8.2 percent.

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Household Inflation Expectations: February 2026

The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 50.8% (a decrease of 4.5 points M-o-M). 34.3% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 21-40%. 34.4% of participants expect inflation to be lower than the current level (an increase of 3.1 points M-o-M).

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MINOR INCREASE IN INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 3% (an increase of 3.4 points M-o-M). 1% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 21-40%.

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Household Inflation Expectations: December 2025

The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 9% (a decrease of 5.8 points M-o-M). 1% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 21-40%. 3% of participants expect inflation to be lower than the current level (an increase of 6.8 points M-o-M).

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