Oil price Pass-Through during the US-Iran Conflict: Evidence from Daily Consumer Prices in Türkiye
This paper examines the time-varying association between domestic fuel prices and consumer prices in an energy-importing emerging economy. Focusing on Türkiye during the US-Iran conflict, it uses daily consumer price data and a state-space model to estimate oil price pass-through (OPPT) in real time. The estimates suggest that OPPT varies over the sample. Before the conflict, the estimated relationship between domestic pump prices and consumer prices was small and statistically insignificant. The June 2025 episode coincides with a brief increase in the coefficient. A larger and statistically significant increase is observed during the 2026 escalation, which also coincides with the blockade of the Strait of
Hormuz and a sharp rise in crude oil prices.
The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 47% (a decrease of 2.8 points M-o-M).
41.5% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 21-40%.
32% of participants expect inflation to be lower than the current level (a decrease of 0.3 points M-o-M).
By gender: The inflation expectation is 44.6% for men and 51% for women.
The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 53,7% (a decrease of 6.3 points M-o-M).
31,2% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 21-40%.
24.3% of participants expect inflation to be lower than the current level (an increase of 6.4 points M-o-M).
By gender: The inflation expectation is 52% for men and 56.7% for women.
The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 60% (an increase of 10.3 points M-o-M).
32% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 41-60%.
17.9% of participants expect inflation to be lower than the current level (a decrease of 11.8 points M-o-M).
According to seasonally adjusted data, employment increased by 136 thousand in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, reaching 32 million 686 thousand. Over the same period, the number of unemployed decreased by 58 thousand, and the labor force increased by 78 thousand. As a consequence, the unemployment rate declined to 8.2 percent.
The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 50.8% (a decrease of 4.5 points M-o-M).
34.3% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 21-40%.
34.4% of participants expect inflation to be lower than the current level (an increase of 3.1 points M-o-M).
The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 3% (an increase of 3.4 points M-o-M). 1% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 21-40%.
The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 9% (a decrease of 5.8 points M-o-M).
1% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 21-40%.
3% of participants expect inflation to be lower than the current level (an increase of 6.8 points M-o-M).
In light of the fully-released July, August and partly-released September leading indicators, we expect the Turkish economy to grow by 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. According to seasonal and calendar-adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be 1.0 percent.
The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 1% (a decrease of 3.7 points compared to last month).
5% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 41-60%.
2% of participants expect inflation to be lower than the current level (an increase of 0.3 points compared to last month).
By gender: The inflation expectation is 3% for men and 53.7% for women.
By age: the lowest expectation is at the group of 25-34 years (%51.2), the highest expectation is at the group of 65+ years (%56.2).
By employment status: The highest expectation is among students (%60.7), and the lowest is among salaried government employees (%45.7).
Gökhan Şahin Güneş This paper examines the time-varying association between domestic fuel prices and consumer prices in an energy-importing emerging economy. Focusing on Türkiye...
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