Seyfettin Gürsel, Zümrüt İmamoğlu, ve Arda Aktaş
Last week Turkey’s statistical institute TurkStat released its estimate of the GDP growth in the third quarter. The year-on-year real GDP growth turned out to be 5.5%, less than the market expectations which stood at around 7%. Seasonally adjusted real GDP growth was 1.1% on a quarter to quarter basis. In the second quarter real GDP had increased 3.5% quarterly.
Domestic demand continued to increase in the third quarter; however, the decrease in exports and the small decrease in the government expenditures contributed to the slowing down of the economy.
According to Betam’s component by component analysis of seasonally adjusted real GDP, the largest contribution to growth came from private consumption expenditures, 2.4 percentage points. Private investment slowed down when compared to the second quarter and contributed 0.6 percentage points to the change in real GDP while the inventory investments increased and contributed 0.7 percentage points.
Exports decreased by 2.4% and imports increased by 5.8%. As a result the contribution of net exports to GDP growth was negative as Betam had predicted.[1] Net exports contributed -2.1 percentage points to the change in GDP.
[1] Betam Research Brief No:10/98.
doc. ResearchBrief100
pdf. ResearchBrief100