GROWTH SLOWED IN THE SECOND QUARTER
Seyfettin Gürsel and Saliha Tanrıverdi
Executive Summary
The Turkish economy grew by 2.3% year-on-year and 1.1% quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2026 (Figure 2). As in the first quarter, private consumption made the largest contribution to annual growth. Rising by 3.5% year-on-year, private consumption alone contributed 1.8 percentage points to overall growth. However, private consumption declined by 1.3% compared with the preceding quarter. Government consumption also fell in both annual and quarterly terms. Investment increased by 0.6% year-on-year, contributing 0.2 percentage points to growth, while inventory changes contributed -0.3 percentage points. On a quarterly basis, investment remained unchanged and made no contribution to growth. Inventory changes added 0.3 percentage points relative to the preceding quarter. Foreign trade showed a marked quarter-on-quarter improvement: exports rose by 6.2% while imports declined by 1.8%, bringing the net trade contribution to 1.8 percentage points. In annual terms, exports and imports contracted by 3.4% and 6.4%, respectively, resulting in a positive net trade contribution of 0.9 percentage points. Looking ahead, the course of growth will depend on the CBRT’s monetary policy, whether the loss of momentum in private consumption persists, and whether the recovery in foreign trade is sustained.