Luis Pinedo Caro
Back in 2021, the Turkish Statistical Institute increased the sample size of the Household Labour Force Survey so as to provide independent monthly estimates of the labour market. This research brief analyzes the effects of passing from 3 month moving average stats to monthly ones in terms of the HLFS capacity to assess short-term labour market dynamics. It does so by comparing official monthly figures on formal employment from the Social Security Institute and from the HLFS, both seasonally adjusted and without adjustment. The results show that the shift to monthly stats has worsened an already weak link regarding employment growth between the HLFS and SGK figures. Moreover, it shows that seasonally adjusted figures, especially after the 2021 change, should be avoided to understand the short-term evolution of employment due to the limited information carried.
doc. ResearchBrief279
pdf. ResearchBrief279