HIGH GROWTH DESPITE QUARANTINE MEASURES
Ozan Bakış ve Gökhan Dilek
In the last month of the fourth quarter of 2020, quarantine measures started to be implemented again. The fact that economic activities were not included in the bans ensured that economic growth was not affected by these measures in this quarter. Except exports, all GDP expenditure components increase considerably. In the fourth quarter of 2020, compared to the same period of the previous year, private consumption increased by 8.2 percent, public expenditures by 6.6 percent and investments by 10.3 percent, while exports remained stable and did not contribute to the GDP growth and 2.5 percent increase in imports suppressed it. Thus, GDP grew by 5.9 percent on an annual basis. According to the seasonally and calendar adjusted data, private consumption (0.8 percent), public expenditures (3.6 percent), exports (18.9 percent) and imports (0.2 percent) record increases compared to the previous quarter, while investments (minus 2.7 percent), on the other hand, decline.
Significant growth was achieved in the fourth quarter because of the absence of any lockdown measures in October and November and the exemption of economic activities from the new measures taken at the beginning of December. Turkey was one of the few countries that recorded economic growth in 2020 (1.8% in 2020 compared to the previous year). We expect the economic recovery to continue in the first quarter of 2021, with the gradual re-normalization process starting in March.