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Economic Growth and Forecasts: August 2019

Low Growth Rate in the Second Quarter
Ozan Bakış and Hamza Mutluay

In the light of fully-released April, May and June leading indicators, our estimate for the year-on-year GDP growth is minus 2 percent in the second quarter of 2019. Seasonally and calendar day adjusted quarteron-quarter growth is expected to increase by 0.4 percent in the second quarter of 2019.

As known, the growth rate in 2019 was targeted at 2.3 percent in the New Economy Program. However, the final forecast of OECD and IMF were minus 2.6 and minus 2.5 percent, respectively.The World Bank revised its forecast of 1.0 percent growth in January 2019 to minus 1.6 percent in June 2019. The weak growth performance expected in the
second quarter confirms the forecasts of international organizations for 2019.

pdf. EconomicGrowthForecast2019M8

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