Labor Market Outlook: February 2019

SHARP INCREASE IN UNEMPLOYMENT

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gokce Uysal and Furkan Kavuncu

Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that in the period of November 2018, non-agricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.6 percentage points and reached 14.1 percent. In this period, employment decreased in all sectors albeit a decrease in labor force. Thus unemployment rate rose significantly. Employment in manufacturing decreased by 78 thousand in the last three periods combined. This decline parallel to the in the industrial production index which has been decreasing since July 2018. The decrease in employment in the construction sector has amounted to 363 thousand since the beginning of 2018. As for services, employment dropped by 87 thousand in the period of November 2018. With reference to Betam’s growth estimate for the last quarter of 2018, which is noted as minus 3.5 percent, we expect the increase in non-agricultural unemployment rate to continue in the period of December 2018.

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