Labor Market Outlook: October 2018


Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal Kolaşın and Yazgı Genç

Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that in the period of July 2018 compared to June 2018, non-agricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.2 percentage points and reached 13.0 percent. Even though the increase in non-agricultural labor force slowed down in this period, losses in non-agricultural employment translated into an increase in the number of unemployed and the non-agricultural unemployment rate. Even though the employment increased in services by 77 thousand in July 2018, there are significant employment loses in manufacturing and construction. The cumulative loss in construction reached 230 thousand from February to July. The fact that there were losses in manufacturing of 34 thousand despite an increased in the industrial production index in July 2018, is worrisome. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that the non-agricultural unemployment will rise to 13.1 percent in the period of August 2018. In the period of July 2018, the non-agricultural female and male unemployment rate increased in a parallel manner, and thus the gender gap in non-agricultural unemployment rates remained constant.

doc. LaborMarketOutlook2018M10

pdf. LaborMarketOutlook2018M10

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