Labor Market Outlook: August 2018

SHARP INCREASE IN NON-AGRICULTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT CONTINUES

Seyfettin Gürsel and Uğurcan Acar 

Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that, in the period of May 2018 compared to April 2018, non-agricultural unemployment rate increased by 0.3 percentage points and reached 12.5 percent. Thus, non-agricultural unemployment rate increased from 11.9 to 12.5 percent in the last two months. Consecutive decreases in employment are the reasons behind the increase in non-agricultural unemployment. Sectoral data indicates that employment decreased in all sectors except manufacturing. There have been strong employment losses in construction in the last three periods. Since employment losses occurred mostly in construction where men are more likely to be employed, the gender gap in non-agricultural unemployment rates have decreased in favor of women. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that the non-agricultural unemployment will increase to 12.7 percent in the period of June 2018.

doc. LaborMarketOutlook2018M08
pdf. LaborMarketOutlook2018M08