HIGH GROWTH IN THE 4th QUARTER TOO
Seyfettin Gürsel, Ozan Bakış and Uğurcan Acar
In the last quarter of 2017, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 7.3 percent compared to the same quarter of the previous year, while using seasonally and calendar day adjusted data the quarter-on-quarter growth rate was 1.8 percent. The highest contribution to annually economic growth comes from private consumption (4.0 percentage points) and change in stock (3.7 percentage points), respectively. The contribution of investments that grew by more than 6 percent was only 1.8 percentage points whereas the contribution of exports that grew by 9.3 percent was only 2.0 percentage points. Imports rose by 22.7 percent, a record increase, and accordingly its contribution to growth was minus 5.4 percentage points. Ultimately, the contribution of net foreign trade was high but negative, minus 3.4 percentage points. On the other hand, the contribution of government spending was limited, 1.2 percentage points.
7.4 percent of annual GDP growth in 2017 is almost two points higher than the projected 5.5 percent GDP growth for 2017 in the 2018-2020 Medium Term Program (OVP). It is widely acknowledged that the Credit Guarantee Fund and other incentives are effective in this high growth. The question is how these enormous incentives can be sustained within budget constraints in 2018.
doc. Growth2017Q4
pdf. Growth2017Q4