Moderate Growth
Ozan Bakış, Mine Durmaz, Melike Kökkızıl
Leading indicators continue to move in opposite directions as mentioned in our previous research briefs. The first quarterly data of 2016 reveals that recovery in investment stands out and a moderate progress in consumption persists. Nonetheless, government spending exhibits a sharp decline. As for investment, significant increases are seen in import of investment goods and its production; however, production of commercial cars will remain limited compared to our previous calculations.
Updated data indicate that negative contribution of net export to the growth will become clearer. Our estimates for quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year growth rates are revised to 0.6 percent and 3.5 percent, respectively. In addition, we predict the current account deficit to GDP ratio to be 4.2 percent and the gold-excluded ratio to be 4.8 percent.