Economic Outlook & Forecasts: March 2016


Seyfettin Gürsel, Mine Durmaz and Melike Kökkızıl

Following to the completion of December 2015 data, we present our 2016 1. quarter growth rate forecast along with our final 2015 4. quarter growth rate estimation in this month’s report. For the last quarter of 2015, we revise up our growth rate forecast from 0.6 to 0.8 due to the increase in industrial production.  Taking into consideration of the actual GDP announced in first three quarters and our GDP growth estimation for the fourth quarter, we expect that year-on-year GDP growth will be slightly over 4 percent. Moreover, we predict the current account deficit to GDP ratio to be 4.5 percent.

We estimate quarterly growth to be 0.5 for the 1. quarter of 2016. Also, we expect 2.3 percent of decline in annual growth due to base effect. Leading indicators of January and February point out that the rise in private consumption has weakened. Also, it is indicated that the relative stagnation of investments persists. Net exports contribute negatively whereas public expenditures contribute positively to GDP growth. Finally, we expect a decline in the current account deficit to GDP ratio for the first quarter of 2016.