MODERATE GROWTH IN THIRD QUARTER
Seyfettin Gürsel, Mine Durmaz and Melike Kökkızıl
We revise up our economic growth forecast for the third quarter compared to second quarter from 0.6 percent, which was mostly based on leading indicators of July and August, to 0.7 per cent considering the new data of September. Seasonally adjusted Industrial Production Index (IPI) remained stable in September compared to its previous month. In the third quarter, IPI has increased by 1.2 percent compared to its previous quarter. At the same period, export volume index increased by 3.3 percent and import volume index decreased by 1.2 percent. So, the contribution of net exports to the growth is expected to be significantly positive.
The current account surplus in September was $95 million. 12-month rolling current account deficit decreased from $44.3 billion to $40.5 billion. We predict the current account deficit to GDP ratio to be 5.5 percent in third quarter and the gold-excluded ratio to be 5.6 percent.