Labor Market Outlook: August 2015

NONAGRICULTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT STARTS TO INCREASE

Seyfettin Gürsel, Gökçe Uysal and Mine Durmaz

Seasonally adjusted labor market data shows that, compared to the previous period, nonagricultural unemployment rate decreased from 12.0 percent to 12.3 percent (0.3 percentage points) in the period of May 2015. Seasonally adjusted monthly data shows a 90-thousand increase in nonagricultural employment. The increase in labor force reached 184 thousand, thus the number of unemployed increased by 94 thousand. While employment in construction decreased by 37 thousand in this period, employment in services and construction increased by 78 thousand and 50 thousand respectively. Betam’s forecasting model predicts that seasonally adjusted nonagricultural unemployment will continue to increase. Given that the June 2015 elections will be repeated in November 2015 and that the political environment is not suitable for structural reforms, the firms will be hesitant towards job creation. We expect the unemployment to increase in the upcoming periods.

doc. LaborOutlook2015M08

pdf. LaborOutlook2015M08