SHORT-TERM EMPLOYMENT DYNAMICS IN TÜRKİYE: POTENTIAL LIMITATIONS OF THE HOUSEHOLD LABOUR FORCE

Back in 2021, the Turkish Statistical Institute increased the sample size of the Household Labour Force Survey so as to provide independent monthly estimates of the labour market. This research brief analyzes the effects of passing from 3 month moving average stats to monthly ones in terms of the HLFS capacity to assess short-term labour market dynamics. It does so by comparing official monthly figures on formal employment from the Social Security Institute and from the HLFS, both seasonally adjusted and without adjustment. The results show that the shift to monthly stats has worsened an already weak link regarding employment growth between the HLFS and SGK figures. Moreover, it shows that seasonally adjusted figures, especially after the 2021 change, should be avoided to understand the short-term evolution of employment due to the limited information carried.

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Growth in the First Quarter Continues

In light of the fully-released January and partly-released February leading indicators, we expect the Turkish economy to grow by 4.5 percent in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. According to seasonal and calendar-adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be 1,4 percent.

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Recession in the Third Quarter

In light of the fully-released July, August and partly-released September leading indicators, we expect the Turkish economy to shrink by 1.3 percent in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. According to seasonal and calendar-adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP decline to be 0.6 percent.

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DECLINE IN UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, INCREASE IN ALTERNATIVE UNEMPLOYMENT RATES

An increase of 78 thousand people in employment and a decrease of 89 thousand people in the number of unemployed reduced the labor force by approximately 10 thousand, and the general unemployment rate decreased by 0.3 points from July to August, reaching 8.5 percent.

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Negative Outlook for Growth Continues

In light of the fully-released July and partly-released August leading indicators, we expect the Turkish economy to shrink by 0.4 percent in the third quarter of 2024 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. According to seasonal and calendar-adjusted data, we forecast quarter on- quarter GDP decline to be 0.9 percent.

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Growth in the First Quarter

In light of the fully-released January, February and partly-released March leading indicators, we expect the Turkish economy to grow by 5.5 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2024. According to seasonal and calendar-adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be 1.9 percent.

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GROWTH DRIVEN BY HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION AND INVESTMENT

The Turkish economy grew by 4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2023. Thus, the annual growth for 2023 was recorded at 4.5%. The largest contribution to growth in this quarter came from private consumption with 5.3 pp. The contribution of net exports, which was minus 5.3 pp in the previous quarter, was minus 2.3 pp in this quarter. Changes in inventories, which made a positive contribution to growth in the previous two quarters, decreased growth by 2.3 pp this quarter. According to the seasonally and calendar-adjusted series, Turkish economy grew by 1 percent from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2023. Private consumption made a positive contribution of 2.2 pp to quarterly growth, while foreign trade made a positive contribution of 0.9 pp. Investments pulled quarterly growth down by 0.2 pp and stock changes by 1.4 pp.

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Quarterly growth is negative

In light of the fully-released October and November, and partly-released December leading indicators, we expect GDP to increase by 4.4 percent year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2023. According to seasonal and calendar-adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be 0.7 percent.

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DECREASES IN EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT 

 The decrease of 59,000 in employment, along with a decrease of 46,000 in the number of unemployed, resulted in a total labor force decrease of 105,000. The overall unemployment rate has decreased by 0.1 percentage points from August to September, reaching 9.1 percent. 

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High GDP Growth in the Third Quarter

In light of the fully-released July, August and partly-released Septem- ber leading indicators, we expect GDP to increase by 6.2 percent year- on-year in the third quarter of 2023. According to seasonal and calendar- adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be 1.3 per- cent.

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