Economic Growth and Forecasts: April 2021

High Growth in the First Quarter

Ozan Bakış and Gökhan Dilek

In the light of fully-released January, and February, and partially released March leading indicators, we expect GDP to expand by 6.3 percent on a year-on-year basis for the first quarter of 2021. According to seasonal and calendar adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be 1.1 percent.

The leading indicators record mostly increases on year-on-year basis while some of them contract quarterly. A number of indicators contract both yearly and quarterly. Despite these observations, we expect high quarterly and yearly GDP growth rates.

pdf. EconomicGrowthForecasts2021M4