Ozan Bakış, Uğurcan Acar
In light of fully-released July and partly-released August leading indicators, we expect GDP to expand by 3.9 percent on a year-on-year basis for the third quarter of 2022. According to seasonal and calendar-adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be -0.7 percent.
Thus, we expect the positive quarterly growth trend since the pandemic shock in the second quarter of 2020 to be replaced by a contraction. We expect the annual growth, which was constantly above 5 percent in the same period, to decrease slightly. International organizations such as the OECD and the World Bank revised their 2022 growth forecasts for Turkey upwards in their latest forecasts.