Economic Growth and Forecasts: September 2022

Growth Decelerates
Ozan Bakış, Uğurcan Acar

In light of fully-released July and partly-released August leading indicators, we expect GDP to expand by 3.9 percent on a year-on-year basis for the third quarter of 2022. According to seasonal and calendar-adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be -0.7 percent.

Thus, we expect the positive quarterly growth trend since the pandemic shock in the second quarter of 2020 to be replaced by a contraction. We expect the annual growth, which was constantly above 5 percent in the same period, to decrease slightly. International organizations such as the OECD and the World Bank revised their 2022 growth forecasts for Turkey upwards in their latest forecasts.

pdf. EconomicGrowth2022M09