Economic Growth and Forecasts: December 2021

Exports Continue to Drive Growth

Ozan Bakış, Uğurcan Acar

In the light of fully-released October and partly-released November leading indicators, we expect GDP to expand by 5.3 percent on a year-on-year basis for the last quarter of 2021. According to seasonal and calendar adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be 1.3 percent.

There are two sources of economic growth in the third quarter: the increase in demand on services on the annual basis, and the positive balance of foreign trade. IMF has recently raised its growth forecast for Turkey for 2021 from 5.8 percent to 9 percent. If the growth rate in the fourth quarter is close to our forecast then, the 2021 growth will be over 10 percent. However, the decrease or stagnation in leading investment indicators, especially in the import of investment goods, is likely to reduce the growth rate in the following periods.

pdf. EconomicGrowthForecasts2021M12