Economic Growth and Forecasts: October 2021

Exports Drive Growth in the Third Quarter

Ozan Bakış and Uğurcan Acar

In the light of fully-released July, August and partially-released September leading indicators, we expect GDP to expand by 5.6 percent on a year-on-year basis for the third quarter of 2021. According to seasonal and calendar adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be 1.6 percent.

There are two sources of economic growth in the third quarter. The first one is the increase in public investment spending on the annual basis. The second one is positive trade balance. We expect GDP growth in 2021 to be around 10 percent if there is no big surprise. IMF has recently raised its growth forecast for Turkey for 2021 from 5.8 percent to 9 percent. Current developments are in line with this forecast.

pdf. EconomicGrowthForecasts2012M10