Economic Growth and Forecasts: November 2021

Exports and Public Investment Drive Growth in the Third Quarter

Ozan Bakış and Uğurcan Acar

In the light of fully-released July, August and September leading indicators, we expect GDP to expand by 6.1 percent on a year-on-year basis for the third quarter of 2021. According to seasonal and calendar adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be 1.7 percent.

There are three sources of economic growth in the third quarter: the increase in public investment spending and demand on services on the annual basis, and foreign trade. We expect GDP growth in 2021 to be around 10 percent if there is no big surprise. IMF has recently raised its growth forecast for Turkey for 2021 from 5.8 percent to 9 percent. Current developments are in line with this forecast.

doc. EconomicGrowthForecasts2021M11