High Growth in the First Quarter
Ozan Bakış and Gökhan Dilek
In the light of fully-released January, and February, and partially released March leading indicators, we expect GDP to expand by 6.3 percent on a year-on-year basis for the first quarter of 2021. According to seasonal and calendar adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be 1.1 percent.
The leading indicators record mostly increases on year-on-year basis while some of them contract quarterly. A number of indicators contract both yearly and quarterly. Despite these observations, we expect high quarterly and yearly GDP growth rates.