Economic Growth and Forecasts: January 2021

High Growth in the 4th Quarter

Ozan Bakış, Gökhan Dilek

In the light of fully-released October, November, and partially released December leading indicators, we expect GDP to expand by 6.4 percent on a year-on-year basis for the fourth quarter of 2020. According to seasonal and calendar adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be 2.9 percent for the last quarter of 2020.

Nearly all of the leading indicators record significant increases. The impacts of the newly introduced coronavirus measures has not yet been fully reflected in the data since the measures were taken at the start of December. Despite the measures that partially affected December, leading indicators point to strong economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2020.

pdf. EconomicGrowthForecasts2021M1