Economic Growth and Forecasts: January 2021

Economic Growth Continues

Ozan Bakış and Gökhan Dilek

In the light of fully-released October and partially released November leading indicators, we expect GDP to expand by 5.9 percent on a year-on-year basis for the fourth quarter of 2020. According to seasonal and calendar adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be 2.2 percent for the last quarter.

Nearly all of the leading indicators record significant increases. The impacts of the newly introduced coronavirus measures has not yet been reflected in the data since the measures were taken at the start of December. However, it will not be surprising to see strong economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2020 despite the measures that partially affected December.


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