Economic Growth and Forecasts: November 2020

Signs of Strong Recovery

Ozan Bakış and Gökhan Dilek

In the light of fully-released July and August, and partially released September leading indicators, we expect GDP to expand by 5.0 percent on a year-on-year basis for the third quarter of 2020. According to seasonal and calendar adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth as 12.0 percent for the third quarter.

Nearly all of the leading indicators record significant increases. The normalization steps taken at the start of the June supported the Turkish economy. There is a base effect, although mildly in the annual figure, in these rapid GDP growth rates. We can say that the Turkish economy has recovered after hitting the bottom. We anticipate that this strong recovery in the third quarter will not continue in the last quarter of the year due to the new measures and restrictions taken in December.

pdf. EconomicGrowthForecasts2020M11