Economic Growth and Forecasts: September 2020

Signs of Economic Recovery

Ozan Bakış and Gökhan Dilek

In the light of fully-released July, and partially released August lead- ing indicators, we expect GDP to expand by 2.7 percent on a year-on-year basis for the third quarter of 2020. According to seasonal and calendar adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth as 8.3 percent for the third quarter.

Nearly all of the leading indicators record significant increases. The normalization steps taken at the start of the June supported the Turkish economy. At this point, we would like to remind the reader that we fore- cast the third quarter GDP growth with a limited dataset. It is likely that our predictions will change significantly when the August and September figures will be released. Yet already, we expect a positive figure for the third quarter GDP growth rate since the normalization process is in effect throughout the summer months.

pdf. EconomicGrowthForecasts2020M9