Sharp Decline in the Second Quarter
Ozan Bakış and Gökhan Dilek
In the light of fully-released April and May, and partially released June leading indicators, we expect GDP to contract by 7.5 percent on a year-on-year basis for the second quarter of 2020. According to seasonal and calendar adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth as minus 5.0 percent for the second quarter.
We would like to note that almost all leading indicators decreases. There is not any positive contribution to the GDP growth either from consumption, investments, or foreign trade. Some indicators such as industrial production index and capacity utilization rates recorded limited recoveries compared to our former forecast; however, they are still in the negative side. The effects of the economic stimulation policies (CBRT policy rate cuts, cheap credits provided by the public banks, and economic support programs for SMEs) have been limited.