Sharp Decline in the Second Quarter
Ozan Bakış and Gökhan Dilek
In the light of fully-released April, and partially released May leading indicators, we expect GDP to contract by 7,5 percent on a year-on-year basis for the second quarter of 2020. According to seasonal and calendar adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth as minus 6.5 percent for the second quarter.
We would like to note that almost all leading indicators decreases. There is not any positive contribution to the GDP growth either from consumption, investments, or foreign trade. The success of economic stimulation policies (CBRT policy rate cuts, cheap credits provided by the public banks, and economic support programs for SMEs), and the possibility of the second wave of the pandemic remain uncertain. We have a more clear picture of the results of these economic policies when the June statistics are published.