Economic Recovery in Fourth Quarter
Ozan Bakış and Mehmet Cem Şahin
In the light of fully-released October, November and partly-released December leading indicators, our estimate for the year-on-year GDP growth is 5.4 percent for the fourth quarter of 2019. Our estimate for seasonally and calendar day adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth is 1.8 percent for the fourth quarter of 2019.
Relatively high growth numbers reflect a combination of base effect, due to contraction in the fourth quarter of 2018, and economic recovery, as seasonal and calendar day adjusted quarterly figures suggest.