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Economic Growth and Forecasts: February 2020

Growth Exceeds The Government Target

Ozan Bakış and Gökhan Dilek

In the light of fully released October, November and December leading indicators, we expect year-on-year GDP growth to be 5.8 percent for the final quarter of 2019. According to seasonal and calendar adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth as 1.9 percent for the fourth quarter.

The government set a target of 0.5 percent yearly growth rate for 2019 in the New Economy Program. The yearly growth rate should exceed the official target if our calculations come true. Considering the minus 3 percent contraction in the fourth quarter of 2018, it will be no surprise if the year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter of 2019 reaches above 5 percent, due to the base effect.

pdf. EconomicGrowth2020M02

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