High growth due to base effect
Ozan Bakış and Uğurcan Acar
In the light of fully-released October and partly-released November leading indicators, our estimate for the year-on-year GDP growth is 5.2 percent for the fourth quarter of 2019. Our estimate for seasonally and calendar day adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth is 1.8 percent for the fourth quarter of 2019.
If our forecast comes true, the revised 0.5 percent growth rate projected in the New Economy Program for the year 2019 will be achieved. Given that the annual growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2018 was minus 3 percent, it will not be surprising to see a growth rate in the fourth quarter of 2019 over 5 percent due to base effect.