Low growth performance in the second quarter of 2019
In the light of fully-released April and May leading indicators, our estimate for the year-on-year GDP growth is minus 3.1 percent in the second quarter of 2019. Quarter-on-quarter growth rate had been negative in the last three quarters of 2018, while Turkish economy grew by 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2019, compared to the previous quarter. Seasonally and calendar day adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth is expected to increase by only 0.3 percent in the second quarter of 2019.
As known, the growth rate in 2019 was targeted at 2.3 percent in the New Economy Program. However, the final forecast of OECD and IMF were minus 2.6 and minus 2.5 percent, respectively. The weak growth performance expected in the second quarter confirms the forecasts of international organizations for 2019.