Growth Evaluation: 2018 4th Quarter

SHARP DROP IN GDP IN THE 4th QUARTER

Seyfettin Gürsel, Ozan Bakış and Furkan Kavuncu

In the fouth quarter of 2018, according to seasonally and calendar day adjusted data, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased by 2.4 percent compared to the previous quarter, yet decreased by 3.0 percent compared to the same quarter of last year. The greatest negative impact on the annually economic growth comes from private consumption, for which the contribution to GDP growth was minus 5.3 percentage points. The contribution of the decrease in investments also reached minus 3.9 percent. With the policy of insistence on fiscal discipline, the contribution of public consumption remained around zero. On the other hand, the only positive contribution came from net exports. While the contribution of exports was 2.4 percentage points, imports’ contribution rose to 7.3 percentage points as a result of the sharp decline in imports. Thus, the contribution of net exports increased from 8.2 percent to 9.7 percent in the fourth quarter. The yearly growth rate for 2018 was 2.6 percent. The growth target anticipated as 3.8 percent in the New Economy Program (NEP) could not be achieved.

doc. Growth2018Q4

pdf. Growth2018Q4

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