Economic Growth and Forecasts: December 2018

Recession in the fourth quarter
Ozan Bakış and Furkan Kavuncu

In the light of fully-released October and partly-released November leading indicators, our estimate for the year-on-year GDP growth is minus 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018. Seasonally and calendar day adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth is expected to decrease by 1.9.

In the New Economy Program (NEP), the projected GDP growth target was 3.8 percent for 2018. Since the first three quarters’ growth rates were 7.4 percent, 5.3 percent and 1.6 percent, respectively, the target will be at risk of being missed in case of a negative growth in the fourth quarter. In our next  forecast, we will have a better chance to evaluate that risk.