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Economic Growth and Forecasts: September 2018

The low growth in the third quarter

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In the light of fully-released July and partly-released August leading indicators, our estimate for the year-on-year GDP growth is 2.2 percent in the third quarter of 2018. Accordingly, seasonally and calendar day adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth rate is expected to be 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2018 compared to the previous quarter. Since for the majority of the leading indicators we use for the third quarter forecast are available only for July and the minority of them are available for July and August, we estimate the missing months figures needed for the third quarter growth forecast. If realizations are worse than our estimates, third quarter growth will be lower. We will see more clearly in the third quarter growth forecast that we will update next

pdf. EconomicGrowthForecasts2018M09