Economic Growth and Forecasts: October 2018

Slow growth in the third quarter

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In the light of fully-released July, August and partly-released September leading indicators, our estimate for the year-on-year GDP growth is 1.7 percent in the third quarter of 2018. Accordingly, seasonally and calendar day adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth rate is expected to be 0.3 percent in the third quarter of 2018 compared to previous quarter. In our previous note, our forecasts for year-on-year and quarter-onquarter GDP growth were, respectively, 2.2 percent and 0.3 percent. In that note, we stated that if August and September realizations are worse than our estimates, this will decrease our forecast for the third quarter growth. This is the case for many leading indicators as you can see in the note.

pdf. EconomicGrowthForecasts2018M10