Economic Growth and Forecasts: November 2018

No growth in the third quarter

Ozan Bakış and Furkan Kavuncu

In the light of fully-released July, August and September leading indicators, our estimate for the year-on-year GDP growth is 1.7 percent in the third quarter of 2018. However, seasonally and calendar day adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth is expected to be zero.

In our previous note, our forecasts for year-on-year and quarter-onquarter GDP growth were, respectively, 1.7 percent and 0.3 percent. In that note, we stated that if September realizations are worse than our estimates, this will decrease our forecast for the third quarter growth. This is the case for many leading indicators as you can see in the note.

pdf. EconomicGrowthForecasts2018M11