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Economic Growth and Forecasts: August 2018

The high growth despite the negative outlook

Ozan Bakış and Yazgı Genç

In the light of fully-released April, May and June leading indicators, our estimate for the year-on-year GDP growth is 6.2 percent in the second quarter of 2018. Accordingly, seasonally and calendar day adjusted quarter-on-quarter growth rate is expected to be 0.9 percent in the second quarter of 2018 compared to the previous quarter. We revised our estimate for year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth rate down. The main reason behind this revision is lower-than-expected leading indicators in June or even diminishing some. Almost all seasonally and calendar day adjusted consumption and investment leading indicators point out that quarter-on-quarter growth rate will be low. This case implies a pessimistic scenario for our third quarter growth forecasts that we will publish at the end of the September.

pdf. EconomicGrowthForecasts2018M08