Seyfettin Gürsel ve Zümrüt İmamoğlu
Abstract
The decrease in the share of agricultural employment in Turkey has been reversed lately especially during the global crisis. Agricultural employment increased by 17.0 percent between 2007 and 2010 and its share in total employment increased by 1.7 percentage points above its 2007 level. This paper studies the causes of the increase in agricultural employment. Is the surge in agricultural employment stemming from a decrease in the non-agricultural employment opportunities and the decrease in non-agricultural wages during the crisis? Or, have increasing food prices around the world caused an increase in agricultural income, making the agricultural sector more attractive for employment? We use a two-sector small open economy model to analyze the eff ect of changes inworld agricultural prices on sectoral employment. In order to quantify the implications of our model we exploit the regional variation in agricultural employment across 26 regions in Turkey. We use panel data covering agricultural prices and production, non-agricultural wages, employment and regional inflation between 2004 and 2010. We nd that both increases in agricultural prices and decreases in non-agricultural job opportunities are important in explaining the variation observed in agricultural employment in Turkey.
pdf. WorkingPaper#004