Seyfettin Gürsel, Zümrüt İmamoğlu, ve Arda Aktaş
According to data released by Turkstat, Turkey’s real GDP increased at a rate of 3.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2010 (seasonally adjusted, from third quarter to fourth quarter). Yearly growth rate in 2010 was 8.9 percent for the whole year. The increase in real GDP mostly reflected increases in domestic demand but especially investment demand.
According to Betam’s component by component analysis of seasonally adjusted real GDP, the largest contribution to growth came from increases in private investment. Private investment increased by 19 percent quarter to quarter in the fourth quarter and by 34 percent, annually. Its contribution to growth was 3.7 percentage points in the fourth quarter and 5.4 percentage points, annually. Contributions from private consumption expenditures remained slightly below third quarter at 2.3 percentage points quarter on quarter but a high of 4.7 percentage points, annually.
Government expenditures increased in the fourth quarter but its contribution to growth was small both in the fourth quarter and for the whole year; 0.6 and 0.8 percentage points, respectively. Hence, the main driver of real GDP growth was increases in private domestic demand and not government expenditures.
Net exports contributed negatively to both quarterly and annual growth as expected; -1.9 and -4.4 percentage points, respectively. High growth in real GDP fueled capital inflows and the current account deficit reached 6.5% at the year end in 2010.
doc. ResearchBrief109
pdf. ResearchBrief109