Zümrüt İmamoğlu and Barış Soybilgen
According data released by TurkStat, Turkey’s exports increased by 8.8 percent while its import increased by 35.5 percent in October 2010 compared to the same month of the previous year. Month to month changes of imports and exports have high volatility, however seasonally adjusted numbers show that exports entered a downward trend since last May. Between May and September, exports decreased by 1.5 percent per month on average.1 On the other hand, Turkey’s imports show an upward trend; imports increased by 2.9 percent per month on average in the same period.
Among exporting sectors, coking coal and refined petroleum, metal industry and television and communication equipments sectors experienced the largest declines. In the third quarter of 2010, compared to the second quarter, a slowdown or a decrease in exports was observed in almost all sectors. The increase in imports was also ubiquitous but mainly due to increases in imports of consumer goods and intermediate goods.
These developments imply a widening of the trade deficit. We expect net exports to make a negative contribution to GDP growth in the third quarter.
doc. ResearchBrief098
pdf. ResearchBrief098