Zümrüt İmamoğlu and Barış Soybilgen
Executive Summary
Between 2011 and 2013, sharp ups and downs in gold exports and imports caused significant volatility in the current account deficit and the trade deficit. The gold-excluded current account deficit was higher than the actual in 2012 and it was lower than the actual in 2013. Moreover, it has been declining steadily since mid-2011. When gold and energy are excluded, the current account deficit has been stagnant and close to zero since the beginning of 2013. According to trade data for the first eight months, the revival in the economy in 2013 caused a limited increase in energy and gold excluded imports, and this was balanced by the increase in exports. Therefore, an increase in growth rate was achieved without causing an increase in the current account deficit. But, we must emphasize that this growth regime was below the long-term potential rate needed to prevent an increase in the unemployment rate and was more dependent on private and government consumption rather than investment and exports.
doc. ResearchBrief156
pdf. ResearchBrief156