Seyfettin Gürsel and Mehmet Alper Dinçer
According to the latest data released by TURKSTAT and our current GDP growth projections, we estimate that the average unemployment rate will climb up to 16.8% in 2009. We do not expect any recovery in the unemployment rate during 2010 and 2011. Our calculations show that in January 2010, the unemployment rate will reach 18% by the end of 2011 and the total number of the unemployed will run over 4.6 million. Note that such unemployment levels may have serious political implications in Turkey.
In the Pre-accession Economic Programme 2008, State Planning Organization (SPO) estimates the unemployment rate for 2009, 2010 and 2011 as 13.5%, 13.9% and 13.9%, respectively while betam predicts these figures as 16.8%, 16.6% and 16.9%. Needless to say, there is a significant difference between SPO’s and betam’s estimations concerning the future unemployment rates.
doc. ResearchBrief032
pdf. ResearchBrief032