HIGH GROWTH WITH INVESTMENT AND EXPORT IN 2ND QUARTER
Seyfettin Gürsel and Ozan Bakış
In the third quarter of 2017, according to seasonally and calendar day adjusted data, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 2.1 percent compared to the previous quarter and by 5.1 percent compared to the third quarter of last year. Betam have estimated quarter growth rate of 2.0 percent and annual growth rate of 6.2 percent. The highest contribution to annual growth was investments that grew close to 10 percent. The contribution of exports, which grew by more than 10 percent, was also very sizable. The contribution of consumption, which had a low growth rate compared to investment and exports, was also positive but relatively weak. In contrast, the contributions of public consumption, imports and stock changes were negative.
We foresee that the GDP growth of 5.5 per cent for the 2017-2020 Medium Term Programme (OVP), which was announced recently, will be exceeded thanks to the high growth provided by the base effect in the third quarter. When exceptional incentives are not expected to be in force in 2018, it is not clear what channels would contribute 5.5 per cent growth targets foreseen by OVP for the next years.