According to seasonally adjusted data, employment increased by 136 thousand in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, reaching 32 million 686 thousand. Over the same period, the number of unemployed decreased by 58 thousand, and the labor force increased by 78 thousand. As a consequence, the unemployment rate declined to 8.2 percent.
The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 50.8% (a decrease of 4.5 points M-o-M).
34.3% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 21-40%.
34.4% of participants expect inflation to be lower than the current level (an increase of 3.1 points M-o-M).
The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 3% (an increase of 3.4 points M-o-M). 1% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 21-40%.
The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 9% (a decrease of 5.8 points M-o-M).
1% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 21-40%.
3% of participants expect inflation to be lower than the current level (an increase of 6.8 points M-o-M).
In light of the fully-released July, August and partly-released September leading indicators, we expect the Turkish economy to grow by 4.9 percent in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. According to seasonal and calendar-adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be 1.0 percent.
The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 1% (a decrease of 3.7 points compared to last month).
5% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 41-60%.
2% of participants expect inflation to be lower than the current level (an increase of 0.3 points compared to last month).
By gender: The inflation expectation is 3% for men and 53.7% for women.
By age: the lowest expectation is at the group of 25-34 years (%51.2), the highest expectation is at the group of 65+ years (%56.2).
By employment status: The highest expectation is among students (%60.7), and the lowest is among salaried government employees (%45.7).
A MULTIDIMENSIONAL ANALYSIS OF YOUNG PEOPLE NEITHER IN EDUCATION NOR IN EMPLOYMENT (NEETS) IN TÜRKİYE
Young people “neither in education nor in employment” (NEET) constitute one of the most important indicators of the labor market. The NEET indicator tracks the situation of individuals aged 15–24 or 15–29 who have completed their education but are not currently employed. The higher the NEET rate, the larger the share of young people who are disconnected from both production and education in one country.
In light of the fully-released July and partly-released August leading indicators, we expect the Turkish economy to grow by 5.3 percent in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. According to seasonal and calendar-adjusted data, we forecast quarteron-quarter GDP growth to be 1.1 percent.
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE EXPECTATIONS OF STUDENTS
The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 1% (a decrease of 3.7 points compared to last month).
5% of participants expect inflation to be in the range of 41-60%.
2% of participants expect inflation to be lower than the current level (an increase of 0.3 points compared to last month).
In light of the fully-released April and partly-released May leading indicators, we expect the Turkish economy to grow by 4.9 percent in the second quarter of 2025 compared to the same quarter of the previous year. According to seasonal and calendar-adjusted data, we forecast quarter-on-quarter GDP growth to be 1.0 percent.
THE PROPORTION OF THOSE EXPECTING A DECREASE IN INFLATION FELL Summary findings The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 49.8% (a decrease of...
UNEMPLOYMENT DECLINES WHILE THE LABOR FORCE CONTRACTS Seyfettin Gürsel, Saliha Tanrıverdi According to seasonally adjusted data, employment increased by 136 thousand in the fourth...
FALL IN INFLATION EXPECTATIONS Gökhan Şahin Güneş Summary findings The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 50.8% (a decrease of 4.5 points M-o-M)....
MINOR INCREASE IN INFLATION EXPECTATIONS Summary findings The average inflation expectation for one year ahead: 3% (an increase of 3.4 points M-o-M). 1% of...
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