GROWTH IS DRIVEN BY DOMESTIC DEMAND IN 2015
Seyfettin Gürsel, Mine Durmaz and Melike Kökkızıl
Turkish economy grew by 4 percent in 2015 in parallel with Betam’s forecast. It is relatively higher compared to 2015 growth rate which was 2.9. Also, actual GDP growth rate is consistent with the forecasts of the Medium Term Programme. However, while the Medium Term Programme expected a “balanced” growth (increase in private consumptions and positive contribution of net export), it was realised as unbalanced. Private consumptions provided the highest contribution by 4.5 percent (3 percentage point). Second biggest contribution belongs to government spending. Public spending including public investments increased by 7 percent. Private investment growth remained limited by 2.7 percent. On the other hand, net export showed a negative contribution; export has decreased by 0.8 percent while import increased by 0.3 percent.
In 4th quarter, GDP grew by 0.7 percent compared to previous quarter which Betam predicted as 0.8 percent. Main source of 4th quarter’s growth is the positive inventory investment. While private consumptions recorded a limited growth, a significant recovery occurred in investments. After the recent elections, we observe a severe deceleration in growth of public spending. On the contrary, net export contributed negatively due to the declining export and the extensively increasing import.
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