MODERATE GROWTH IN THE 4TH QUARTER
Seyfettin Gürsel, Mine Durmaz and Melike Kökkızıl
Even though 2015 December statistics pointed out opposite changes in GDP components, we preserved our forecast of 0.6 percent due to the compensative character of these changes. In December, regarding the components of GDP, the rise of private consumption keeps its relatively strong level and a recovery occurred in investments. However, we observe a decline in government expenditures (tightening in fiscal discipline) and the negative contribution of net export becomes more evident. Considering the actual GDP in the first three quarters and the forecast for the growth rate for the fourth quarter, we estimate the annual GDP growth as 4 percent. Also, we predict the current account deficit to GDP ratio to be 4.5 percent and the gold-excluded ratio to be 5 percent.