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The first quarter growth is above 7 percent

Economic Growth and Forecasts: May 2018

Ozan Bakış and Uğurcan Acar

In the light of fully-released January, February and March leading indicators, our estimate for the year-on-year GDP growth is 7.4 percent in the first quarter of 2018. Our former estimate was 7.2 percent. The reason for this revision is that the rise in updated private consumption and investment indicators appeared higher than expected. Striking increase in public investment continues. We do not change our previous quarter on quarter forecast using seasonally and calendar day adjusted data. Accordingly, quarter-on-quarter growth rate is expected to be 1.4 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to previous quarter.

pdf. EconomicGrowth2018M05